Originally published in The Australian

Google chief executive Sundar Pichai has congratulated US President-elect Donald Trump, saying “we are in a golden age of American innovation”, as big tech emerges as one of the biggest winners from Republicans regaining the White House.

But tech experts warn that Mr Trump’s deregulation agenda, particularly on artificial intelligence, could create a new “wild west” as companies race to seize competitive advantages without guardrails.

Mr Trump’s plans to impose tariffs on foreign tech hardware to spur US manufacturing could also make products more expensive for Australians.

In the US, the Trump win is expected to be a “sugar hit” for sharemarket, particularly tech stocks — according to Alex Pollak, the founder and chief investment officer of the $1bn technology investment fund, Loftus Peak — with Tesla rallying almost 15 per cent on Wednesday.

“It’s a massive sugar hit. Less regulation, less red tape,” he said.

“It’s a crypto, Elon Musk, (PayPal founder) Peter Thiel, Palantir kind of day. The ‘tech bros’ are back in the ascendancy.”

Mr Pichai was one of the first tech executives to congratulate Mr Trump, saying his win over Kamala Harris was a “decisive victory”.

“We are in a golden age of American innovation and are committed to working with his administration to help bring the benefits to everyone,” Mr Pichai said.

Google is facing a pair of Justice Department cases that could break up the company — a move Trump has expressed reluctance, saying it was “dangerous” as China seeks to overtake the US in global tech dominance.

“It’s a very dangerous thing because we want to have great companies. We don’t want China to have these companies,” Mr Trump told an event in Chicago last month, adding that “China is afraid of Google”.

US District Court Judge Amit Mehta ruled Google was running an illegal monopoly in August, with a separate upcoming trial to determine remedies, including a potential break-up of the company. Mr Mehta is not set to make a decision until mid-next year after Mr Trump moves back into the White House.

Former Trade Commission chair and Republican William Kovacic told Reuters that Mr Trump “is certainly in the position to control the DOJ’s disposition of the remedies phase”.

The DOJ also has lawsuits against Apple, while the Federal Trade Commission is suing Facebook owner Meta and Amazon — which Mr Trump has all said were “great companies”.

Shane Hill, principal research analyst at Australian tech advisory firm ADAPT, said many major tech companies are dealing with issues posed by American regulators preventing consolidation of their market power, citing the potential Google break-up and the company’s $US22bn agreement with Apple to have its search engine as the default on the Safari web browser.

“While the dust is yet to settle, the campaign support offered to the incoming President by key technology players may very well pay dividends if he follows through with promises to deregulate the sector,” Mr Hill said.

Mr Trump also said Musk — the world’s richest person thanks to his tech entrepreneurship at Tesla and SpaceX — was a “super genius” and he would have a role in his administration as head of a new government efficiency commission.

Mr Musk tipped about $US118m into Mr Trump’s campaign as Tesla, which is chaired by Australian Robyn Denholm, faces 20 investigations or reviews, according to the New York Times. This includes the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration investigating Tesla’s “full self-driving system” after reports of crashes in fog and dusty conditions.

But Tesla’s share price soared 14.7 per cent on Wednesday following the election result, with Mr Hill saying the gains reflected market sentiment of Mr Trump’s deregulation agenda.
However, Mr Hill said Mr Trump vow to axe red tape could hinder the “safe adoption”.

“Taking the axe to red tape around this nascent technology could turn the AI sector, already in a period of rapid-expansion, into the “wild west” as companies race for competitive advantages without the constraints of current guardrails,” he said.

“While proposed tariffs on tech hardware, namely computer chips, entering the US may eventually be a good thing for their local manufacturing industry, it brings to the table concerns about the prices paid by Australian firms for technology imported from the US, as well as the certainty of our tech supply chain.”

But Mr Pollak, who founded Loftus Peak in 2014, said the potential inflationary impact of Mr Trump’s tariff policy would take some time to become apparent.

“Tax cuts, probably more interest rate cuts than were previously expected, and less regulation and less red tape around everything will mean a sugar rush for the market,” he said.

Mr Pollak said the US economy could be expected to get a boost from “massive tax cuts, which, of itself, is enough to drive an economic uptick in the next six to 12 months.”

“People are going to be living in expectation of lower tax rates going forward.”

Loftus Peak has a heavy exposure to US tech stocks with investments in Microsoft, Google parent Alphabet, Advanced Micro Devices and Qualcomm. The rise in the… price of US tech stocks has given a boost to the price of Loftus Peak’s EFT fund.

Mr Pollak said the news of a Trump election had given US tech stocks a boost, including Peter Thiel’s data analytics software company, Palantir.

He said Amazon founder Jeff Bezos was clearly “sniffing the (political) wind” when he declared that The Washington Post, which he owns, should not endorse any candidate for the election.

“He worked out, there was more downside than upside (for the Post to back Kamala Harris).”

Mr Pollak said the only major global tech stock which had gone down was the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which had fallen on fears of Trump not coming to the aid of Taiwan in the event of aggressive action from China.

“The thinking on that is that Trump is not going to get I involved with a conflict with China over Taiwan, and China could just let it rip.”

“It is definitely possible, and Trump may or may not get involved in that.”

But he said Trump also recognised that “so much of the US economy is based on the cutting edge chips from TSMC.”

“That is probably a market he would want to protect. I think the Chinese would have thought this through themselves.”