Craig Tindale: 2020 Vision: Forecasting and Budgeting in the Face of Chaos
Author and transformation leader Craig Tindale presented on the importance of making data-based predictions. His presentation was largely based on his book, co-authored by Matt Barrie, which has gone viral since being published in 2017. He said Australia’s economy is at risk because of the housing price collapse, the China economic trade crisis, and the outcomes the financial Royal Commission.
He said these predictions were not opinions, but conclusions based on data. Yet most of the book’s readers did not believe that any of those things would actually happen. A year after publishing the book, many of the people that were doubting these predictions have begun reversing their position, as they started seeing a potential for a housing collapse.
“It is possible to forecast changes in the environment. It is important to consider multiple narratives in risk assessments. To successfully assess risk, CFOs have to view all possibilities.”
Tindale urged the need for situational awareness – to stay aware of what is happening, and how the current situation can lead to specific outcomes. He offered a methodology for measuring and rating a number of ‘powers’:
- Company power shows if a business is seen as a strong competitor on the market.
- Market power shows whether a business is reaching its goals, and if so, how efficiently.
- Offer power shows whether the business sets the trends on the market, or is continually struggling to keep up to date with its competitors.
- Execution power shows whether the strategies that the business is implementing stick, or they are constantly changing their approach and ‘push the reset button’.
He said that no matter how hopeful some people might be, ratings do not lie. If the scores show that a company (or a country) is failing, after taking all current circumstances into consideration, this conclusion shouldn’t be taken lightly.
- To succeed, a company has to make data-based predictions.
- A company can understand its current position by rating different categories of power.
- A company can neutralise a competitor’s innovation, if it reaches a level that’s ‘good enough’ quickly.
- Companies can stay competitive if they differentiate, by creating an unmatchable offer.